Weaker Second Quarter Earnings Expected as Effects of Trade War with China Take Hold

Record Stock Market Levels Mask Earnings Reality

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and TSX are all trading at, or near, record stock market levels. On the surface, how can this be anything but good news? But if you dig into the data even a little bit, you’ll see that North American companies are struggling with the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China. In fact, Main Street is doing a lot worse than what Wall Street is saying. Earnings for the second quarter are expected to decline and the third quarter doesn’t look any better.

Stocks are at record levels and most investors couldn’t be happier. The problem is, those record stock market levels are masking serious issues on Wall Street. Thanks to ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China, North American equities are not expecting to report earnings growth in the second or third quarter. In fact, it’s tough to find a company that expects to report quarter-over-quarter earnings growth.

According to the most recent data, the average projected earnings decline for S&P 500-listed companies in the second quarter is -2.6%. If this holds, it will be the first time the S&P 500 has reported consecutive year-over-year declines since the first two quarters of 2016. It will also be the biggest year-over-year decline in earnings since the second quarter of 2016 (-3.2%).1

What about the third quarter? Analysts expect the downward pressure on earnings to continue into the third quarter. Right now, the earnings decline for the third quarter stands at -0.3%. That might not sound like much, but at the start of the year, Wall Street was projecting third quarter earnings growth of 3.4%.

Corporate American may have avoided an earnings recession in the first quarter, rising a limp 0.6%, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to be able to do that in the second and third quarter. Why is that, when much of Bay Street and Wall Street are reporting solid revenue growth?

The problem with a trade war is not so much what it does to revenue, but to earnings. Decades of free trade has helped strengthen the bottom lines of corporate Canada and the U.S. Yes, increased profitability can be attributed, in part, to cheap money, cost cutting, and innovation, but most of it is a result of free trade and lower taxes.

A trade war with China won’t decimate the U.S. economy, sales to China actually make up a very small part of the U.S. economy; around $130 billion of U.S. exports from an annual $19 trillion economy. But it will hit profits.

Despite the weak earnings outlook, stocks could still trade higher. That’s because investors believe the Federal Reserve will cut its key lending rates in the coming months and will see stocks as providing a better return.

Unfortunately, a record stock market fuelled by artificially low interest rates and devoid of earnings growth, increases the risk of a stock market correction and poses a significant risk to the Canadian and U.S. economies.

Learn-To-Trade.com, Canada’s Leader in Stock Market Trading Courses

North American equities are at record levels but because of the ongoing U.S./China trade war, Canadian and U.S. companies are having a much more difficult time than what the charts show. While earnings for S&P 500-listed companies are projected to decline in the second and third quarter, the trading experts at Learn-To-Trade.com can show you how to profit when the markets are going up, down, or sideways.

As Canada’s oldest and leading provider of stock market trading courses, the instructors at Learn-To-Trade.com will teach you proven trading strategies that can help you trade more confidently and profit more consistently.

The trading professionals at Learn-To-Trade.com will teach you how to conduct a technical analysis, read economic cycles, and spot market trends. You’ll also learn how to trade bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, learn about forex trading, foreign markets, commodities & futures trading, and stock index trading. We’ll also teach you about risk management and capital preservation.

At Learn-To-Trade.com we understand that investors have different needs, that’s why we provide a unique, Lifetime Membership that allows you to re-attend any part of the program as often as you’d like.

To learn more about Learn-To-Trade.com’s stock market trading course, contact us at 416-510-5560 or by e-mail at info@learn-to-trade.com.

Sources:

  1. “S&P 500 Now Projected To Report A Year-Over-Year Decline In Earnings In Q3 2019,” Factset website, June 21, 2019; https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-now-projected-to-report-a-year-over-year-decline-in-earnings-in-q3-2019.

Photo credit: iStock.com/Dilok Klaisataporn

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George Karpouzis is the co-founder of Learn-to-Trade and has been personally providing education and mentoring to over 3000 members since 1999. George has been trading in the stocks, options, futures and forex markets using technical analysis since 1986. With the help of advancements in trading technology the Learn To Trade program is now accessible worldwide. His background and passion for teaching brings an invaluable asset to our members. George is constantly striving to improve the program content and develop new strategic relationships for the benefit of the members. Add me to your G+

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