The Impact of a Weak Chinese Economy on Canada

Learn-To-Trade.com Inc_image_062615Having been the economic engine of the global economy since the 2008 financial crisis, Chinese growth has slowed to just 7% in 2015. While that is significantly higher than both Canada and U.S. GDP growth, it represents the slowest rate of growth in a quarter century. And China’s economic slowdown could have a lasting impact on the Canadian economy and stock market.

China’s Trade Relationship with Canada Flourishes 

Over the last 20 years, the economic relationship between Canada and China, the world’s second-largest economy, has flourished. Today, China is Canada’s second most important trading partner after the U.S.

In 1997, China accounted for just 0.7% of Canada’s exports and 1.9% of imports. Total bilateral trade was $8.7 billion. Between 2003 and 2013, exports to Canada began to increase, growing at an annual rate of 17%. This growth brought China’s share in Canada’s imports to 11% from 4% a decade ago.1

China is now Canada’s second most important export and import market with bilateral trade reaching approximately $78.0 billion, or almost 10 times the 1997 level. Only trade with the U.S. is greater; with a 76% export and 52% import share.

This increasingly important relationship helped Canada stave off the Great Recession that hurt the U.S. and global economies.

In particular, China has an insatiable appetite for Canadian exports, especially our natural resources. Where demand for our natural resources fell during the global recession, demand was robust from China.

But this reliance also makes the Canadian economy vulnerable in the event of an economic slowdown in China.

China’s Economy Grinding Down

China, the world’s second-biggest economy, is in trouble. In 2015, it is expected to report GDP growth of just 7%. The slowest rate in the last 25 years, and down sharply over its 10% annual growth rate of just a few years ago. This slowdown could stall the Chinese economy and send global stocks into a tailspin.2

On October 19, China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that third-quarter GDP expanded 6.9%. But few economists outside of China actually believe this number to be accurate. Most think China’s third-quarter growth was between 4% and 4.5%.3

This is where the numbers are a little misleading. No economy can expand at 10% unabated; there are going to be hiccups. Even 4% growth for a $10.0 trillion economy is still $400 billion, and it’s worth more than the 10% growth a decade ago when China’s economy was just $2.0 trillion. So the Chinese economy is slowing down, but it isn’t going to collapse.

To help kick-start its economy, China has cut interest rates five times since last November (to 4.85%) and devalued the yuan to encourage lending and boost growth. Broad weakness in the Chinese economy will weigh on the global economy.

In fact, signs of China’s weakening economy can be already be seen from the decline in GDP growth among emerging economies, low commodity prices, and the downturn in global trade.

And low commodity prices are bad for a natural resource-rich country like Canada, where crude oil accounts for around 14% of exports. And it’s one of the biggest contributors to the country’s GDP. This will negatively impact Canadian stocks, the Canadian dollar, and hinder economic growth.

Keep in mind, all of these factors open up a window of opportunity for investors.

Learn-To-Trade.com, Toronto’s Premier Investing Course

When it comes to investing, investors need to have a comprehensive arsenal of financial tools to choose from. After all, there’s more to investing than stocks and bonds.

In the current economic climate, investors could use their forex skills to trade the Canadian dollar and Chinese yuan. By taking Learn-To-Trade.com’s investing course, you could also learn how to trade commodities, futures, options, and even stock indices.

As the leading and oldest provider of stock market training courses in Canada, Learn-To-Trade.com is led by licensed, industry professionals. Their extensive understanding of the stock market, futures, options trading, and forex, along with their unprecedented in-depth understanding of the global economy will provide you with the knowledge you need to create an informed, disciplined approach to the financial markets.

For more information on Learn-To-Trade.com, our stock market trading course, and Lifetime Membership, visit the company’s web site at www.Learn-To-Trade.com or contact us by phone at 416-510-5560 or by e-mail at info@learn-to-trade.com.

 

Sources:

  1. “The Impact  on  Canada  of  the  Rise  of  the   Chinese  Economy:  Good,  Bad  or  Indifferent?” Queen’s University, https://www.queensu.ca/sps/publications/workingpapers/50-Drummond-Clemens_2014_Canada-China.pdf.
  2. “GDP Growth (annual %),” World Bank website; https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG.
  3. “Overall Economic Development was Stable in the First Three Quarters of 2015,” National Bureau of Statistics of China website; https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201510/t20151019_1257742.html.
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George Karpouzis is the co-founder of Learn-to-Trade and has been personally providing education and mentoring to over 3000 members since 1999. George has been trading in the stocks, options, futures and forex markets using technical analysis since 1986. With the help of advancements in trading technology the Learn To Trade program is now accessible worldwide. His background and passion for teaching brings an invaluable asset to our members. George is constantly striving to improve the program content and develop new strategic relationships for the benefit of the members. Add me to your G+

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