Stocks Continue to Soar but Risks Could Derail Record Bull Market

Stocks are soaring and the 10-year old bull market is the longest on record. In fact, the party on Wall Street ranks as one of the greatest bonanza’s in U.S. stock market history. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are at record highs and the U.S. economy continues to chug along but there are a number of factors that could derail the bull market in the fourth quarter and into the first half of 2019.

At the start of 2018 many economist were predicting that U.S. stocks would take a breather. While the markets took a big hit in late January, U.S. equities have rebounded and soared to record highs.

The S&P 500 is up 8.5% year-to-date and up more than 12.5% since the spring. Since the markets bottomed in March 2009, the SAP 500 has soared more than 335%. The tech heavy Nasdaq meanwhile, is up 17% since the start of the year and is up 19% since the spring. Since March 2009, the Nasdaq has advanced an eye watering 542%.

Can the good times continue for the U.S. and Canadian stock markets? The stock markets appear strong and the U.S. economy is healthy, but there are a number of factors that could force the bull market to stall. Some of the biggest concerns on Wall Street and Bay Street right now are rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and slower earnings growth.

Slower Earnings

For the most part, since the stock market bottomed in March 2009, stocks have risen less because of strong corporate earnings and more because of streamlining efforts and share buyback programs.

Admittedly, U.S. stocks have done well in 2018 because of strong corporate earnings, due in part to President Trump’s tax reform, but that earnings growth has begun to slow and could decline in the fourth quarter and into 2018.

Global Economy Fragile

Why are corporate profits declining? The global economy, which showed signs of growth in 2017, has been volatile in 2018. The European economy is fragile and the U.S. dollar is robust; not a good combination for American companies that rely on exports…which is the majority of American stocks.

Ongoing Risks of a Trade War

On top of that, a trade war between the U.S. and, frankly, the rest of the world could wreak havoc on the stock market. A failure to nail down an agreement on NAFTA could also negatively impact Canadian stocks.

Rising Interest Rates

Rising interest rates could also put the brakes on the U.S. economy. Since December 2015, the U.S. Federal Reserve has raised its overnight lending rate seven times, from 0.25% to 2.0%. The Fed has signalled it will continue to raise rates two more times before the end of 2018. Raising rates too quickly, has historically, tipped the U.S. economy into a recession.

Stocks Overvalued

That means the long-in-the-tooth bull market, which hasn’t taken a real breather since it started in 2009, could be in jeopardy. This is, of course bad news for stocks. Not just because stocks could retrace, but because stocks are so overvalued no one can really say where the support level will be.

According to the Case Shiller PE Ratio, one of the most popular measures of stock market valuations, U.S. stocks are overvalued by 108%. On top of that, stocks have only been this overvalued once before, during the 1999 dotcom era.

Whether it’s 1929, 1987, 1999, or 2008, it never ends well when stocks are this overvalued.

Learn-To-Trade.com, Canada’s Leader in Stock Market Trading Courses

While few economists actually think the U.S. economy is going to slip into a recession in the coming quarters, there are a number of legitimate risks that could derail the bull market. And with stock valuations in nose bleed territory, that could devastate stock portfolios. Fortunately, the trading experts at Learn-To-Trade.com can show you how to read the markets, understand the risks, and profit no matter what the markets are doing.

As Canada’s leading and oldest provider of stock market trading courses, the trading professionals at Learn-To-Trade.com can show investors of every skill level how to trade more confidently and profit more consistently.

Investors who take Learn-To-Trade.com’s stock market trading course will learn how to spot market trends, conduct technical and fundamental analysis, and learn about commodities, futures, foreign markets, stock index trading, cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and Forex trading. They also learn about risk management and capital preservation.

At Learn-To-Trade.com we also understand that investors have different needs and learn at different speeds, that’s why we provide a unique, Lifetime Membership that allows you to re-attend any part of the program as often as you’d like.

To learn more about Learn-To-Trade.com’s stock market trading course, contact us at 416-510-5560 or by e-mail at info@learn-to-trade.com.

Photo Credit: iStock.com/gopixa

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George Karpouzis is the co-founder of Learn-to-Trade and has been personally providing education and mentoring to over 3000 members since 1999. George has been trading in the stocks, options, futures and forex markets using technical analysis since 1986. With the help of advancements in trading technology the Learn To Trade program is now accessible worldwide. His background and passion for teaching brings an invaluable asset to our members. George is constantly striving to improve the program content and develop new strategic relationships for the benefit of the members. Add me to your G+

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